Take-Aways:
Many bulls in the market were looking for (hoping for?) the June lows to hold, creating a support level that could be used to mount a counterattack on the bears. Unfortunately for them, that is not how the week played out. When all was said and done, the U.S. and global equity markets were below important support levels and their respective moving averages, keeping the trends in favor of the bears. As has been the case for much of 2022, Treasuries failed to provide a haven for battered equity investors. Commodities are now at a key level for the secular uptrend.
U.S. Equities
On a closing basis, the S&P 500 has undercut the June lows after fading from the resistance at 3,900 during the prior week. The index remains below the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages, and the door is now open to a test of the pre-COVID highs near 3,500.
Momentum remains in a bearish regime, and the 14-week RSI is moving lower with room to an oversold condition.
The S&P Small Cap 600 Index closed lower on the week, moving below the June lows. The index continues to trade under the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages. There is price-based support near 1,050 that the bulls must defend to avoid further downside. The 14-week RSI is holding in a bearish regime, confirming a bearish price trend.
The relative trend continues to move sideways, trading in a near-year-old consolidation.
The NASDAQ 100 Index completes the trifecta of major U.S. markets taking out the June lows with weakness last week. The index is holding below the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages, opening the door to a move toward the pre-COVID highs near 10,000. The 14-week RSI is in a bearish regime.
The relative trend continues to trade below resistance and is heading lower. Odds favor continued underperformance.
U.S. Fixed Income
The 10-Year Note closed lower once again last week, once again refusing to provide a port in the storm that is the equity market. The Note is trading below the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages to keep the bears in control of the match.
The yield remains above support at the 3.20% level, increasing the odds of a move toward 4.00%.
Global Equities
The Global Dow followed the lead of the U.S. market, heading lower on the week as it trades below the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that the index has broken below the pre-COVID highs. There is room to the 3,000 level in the near term. Momentum is in a bearish regime as the 14-week RSI reaches oversold levels.
The relative trend remains under pressure, near the late 2021 lows. There may be a base building, but more time is needed for a transition to take hold.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is now testing the key support zone between 106 and 110, below the 10 and 40-week moving averages. Commodity bulls want to see support hold to keep the bullish secular trend alive. Retaking the moving averages would signify that the bullish trend is reasserting itself.
Momentum has also reached a key level as the 14-week RSI is testing 40 (the lower bound of a bullish regime). As we mentioned last week, now is the time for the bulls to make a stand.
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