Key Points

  • The S&P 500 Rallies Further Above Support
  • Small Caps Remain an In-Line Performer
  • The NASDAQ 100 Faces a Relative Test This Week
  • The Ten-Year Note Remains in Base-Building Mode
  • Commodities Hold the 40-Week Moving Average Again

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U.S. Equities

After regaining broken support and the 10-week moving average, there is scope for the S&P 500 to move up to the declining 40-week moving average. Breaking through that level would set the stage for a continuation of the current rally. However, it would not be a surprise to see the bears put up a fight there. The 14-week RSI is moving higher after breaking the downtrend but still has work to do to exit a bearish regime.

The S&P Small Cap 600 Index continues to rally after breaking above broken support and the 10-week moving average. The index could face a test at the declining 40-week moving average. Breaking above that level would put the bulls in a position to take control of the match. The 14-week RSI has been improving but has yet to break from a bearish regime.

The relative trend continues to churn below resistance as it trades in a consolidation. The group remains an in-line performer for now.

The NASDAQ 100 has room to the declining 40-week moving average after regaining the 10-week moving average and broken support. The 14-week RSI is moving higher as it tries to shift to a bullish regime.

The relative trend continues to improve and is now testing resistance. Breaking higher from current levels could set the stage for further outperformance.

U.S. Fixed Income

The 10-Year Note saw a big reversal to the downside last week but remains above the 2018 lows where it has been building a base for the past two months. The Note is above the 10-week moving average, keeping a move to the 40-week moving average in play.

The yield continues to have a tough time breaking resistance, keeping the odds in favor of a move lower until that level is breached.

Global Equities

The Global Dow has rallied to retake the 10-week moving average but will now have to break resistance to make that the case for further strength to the declining 40-week moving average. Despite a move above 40, the 14-week RSI remains in a bearish regime for now.

The relative trend has weakened further below resistance.


The Bloomberg Commodity Index tested and held the rising 40-week moving average while remaining below the declining 10-week moving average. The short-term trend is still under pressure, but the long-term bullish trend continues to hold. The 106 level is the key line in the sand for the long-term trend.

The 14-week RSI is holding in a bullish regime after testing the lower bound of this regime near 40.


U.S. equities remain in their counter-trend rallies, which have room to the declining 40-week moving averages. Breaking these measures of the long-term trend will be important for the bulls to take better control. Moving below the 10-week moving averages would signal that the bears are regaining the upper hand. The 10-Year Note continues to build a base near the 2018 lows as the Yield has been unable to clear resistance. Commodities remain in a long-term uptrend while still under short-term pressure.

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