Global Equity & Interest Rate volatility continues to take its toll on balanced investors, with Commodities being the only space that has managed to hold its ground. For many investors, the opportunity set continues to paint a bleak picture, with a focus on finding pockets of the market that have been performing “less bad.” While Commodities have experienced some volatility in recent weeks, from a trend perspective, the space remains the most attractive.

Major U.S. Equities & Factors

Market-wide volatility continues to take its toll on our universe of Major U.S. Equities & Factors, with no funds above their 50-day moving average and two (SPYD, SPHD) above their 200-day moving average.

Mid Cap Value (IWS) Relative to S&P 500

IWS hit our scans this week for new six-month highs relative to the S&P 500 after breaking out of long-term relative resistance to the upside. There were 379 instances since 2001 where IWS made a new six-month high relative to the S&P 500 for a median relative gain of 95bps with a 67.21%-win rate over the following quarter.

Historical Relative Performance When IWS Makes a New Six-Month Relative to S&P 500

Industries

Only one fund in our industry list maintains ground above its 50 & 200-day moving average – XOP, with a handful of 21/63-day moving average Death Crosses across a variety of industries.

Metals & Mining (XME)

XME hit our scans this week for a 21/63-day moving average Death Cross after rebounding from support at the $47.75 zone. There were 33 instances since 2007 where XME experienced a 21/63-day Death Cross for a median gain of 2.25% with a 59.38%-win rate over the following quarter. It’s worth noting that median gains have tended to peak 40 trading days out at 4.74% on a slightly improved 62.50%-win rate, so consideration should be given to hold times. While these results have been attractive, investors would be prudent to utilize the $47.75 zone for risk management.

Historical Performance When XME Experiences a 21/63-Day Death Cross

Fixed Income

Only one fund in our Fixed Income universe (IVOL) maintains ground above its 50-day moving average, with no funds above their 200-day moving average.

High Yield Munis (HYMB) Relative to AGG

HYMB hit our scans this week for new six-month lows relative to AGG after a strong move to the downside. There were 100 instances since 2011 where HYMB made a new six-month low relative to AGG for a median relative gain of 93bps with a 70.00%-win rate over the following quarter. It’s worth noting that median relative gains have tended to peak 58 trading days out at 1.24% on a reduced 65.565-win rate, so consideration should be given to hold times.

Historical Relative Performance When HYMB Makes a New Six-Month Low Relative to AGG

Commodity Funds

Despite heightened volatility in both equities and fixed income, our commodity universe manages to maintain the highest percentage of funds above both 50 & 200-day moving averages.

Gasoline (UGA)

UGA hit our scans for new six-month highs this week after breaking out of $68 resistance to the upside. There were 268 instances since 2008 where UGA made a new six-month high for a median gain of 1.42% with a 56.25%-win rate over the following quarter. It’s worth noting that median gains have tended to peak 46 trading days out at 2.65% on a slightly improved 57.36%-win rate, so consideration should be given to hold times. While these results have been attractive, investors would be prudent to utilize the $68 level for risk management.

Historical Performance When UGA Makes a New Six-Month High

Global Regions

Global Regions continue to remain under pressure as no funds can maintain ground above either 50 or 200-day moving averages.

Frontier Markets (FM) Relative to ACWX

FM hit our scans for new three-month lows this week relative to ACWX after a test of relative support at the December ’21 and January lows. There were 134 instances since 2012 where FM made a new three-month low relative to ACWX for a median relative gain of 2.42% with a 65.41%-win rate over the following quarter.

Historical Relative Performance When FM Makes a New Three-Month Low Relative to ACWX

Country Funds

Global equity volatility continues to take its toll on individual countries throughout the world, with no funds maintaining ground above their 50-day moving averages and only a handful above their 200-day moving average.

Philippines (EPHE)

EPHE hit our scans for new six-month lows this week after a test of long-term support at the $27.50 zone. There were 91 instances since 2010 where EPHE made a new six-month low for a median gain of 3.90% with a 58.33%-win rate over the following quarter. It’s worth noting that median gains have tended to peak 33 trading days out at 5.93% on an improved 68.24%-win rate, so consideration should be given to hold times. While these results have been attractive, investors would be prudent to utilize the $27.50 zone for risk management.

Historical Performance When EPHE Makes a New Six-Month Low

Disclosure: This information is prepared for general information only and should not be considered as individual investment advice nor as a solicitation to buy or offer to sell any securities. This material does not constitute any representation as to the suitability or appropriateness of any investment advisory program or security. Please visit our FULL DISCLOSURE page.