Take-Aways:
The S&P 500 was once again turned away at the key 3,900 level. The index remains in a neutral position if it holds above 3,700 and becomes incrementally bullish above the 40-week moving average. Small Caps continue to exhibit relative strength in the equity space while the NASDAQ 100 remains an underperformer. Treasuries resumed lower, but we note that the 10-Year Note did not make a lower low last week. Commodities have held support, a break above the 40-week moving average could be considered incrementally bullish.
U.S. Equities
The S&P 500 was turned away at 3,900 for a second consecutive week and is now doing battle with the 10-week moving average. The index remains below the 40-week moving average, a key level that must be overcome for the trend to become incrementally bullish.
The 14-week RSI remains in a bearish regime, but we have noted the higher low in October and the fact that this indicator did not reach oversold levels.
The S&P Small Cap 600 Index trades in a neutral position between the 10 and 40-week moving averages after testing the latter last week. Above 1,050, there is an upside bias that becomes incrementally bullish above 1,300. The 14-week RSI is in the middle of the range but has work to do to break from a bearish regime.
The relative trend is threatening a breakout after improving again last week. A move above the October/November 2021 peaks could set the stage for further outperformance.
The NASDAQ 100 Index closed lower on the week, testing support at the 11,000 level. The index was rejected by the 10-week moving average and remains below the 40-week moving average. At the same time, the 14-week RSI continues to trade in a bearish regime.
The relative trend remains bearish and below resistance. Odds favor continued underperformance, a theme that we have been highlighting in these pages for weeks.
U.S. Fixed Income
The 10-Year Note closed lower last week. A consolation prize for treasury bulls is that the Note did not make a lower low, however it remains in a bearish trend below the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages.
The yield remains above the 3.20% – 3.50% support zone. Nothing changes until support is broken to the downside.
Global Equities
The Global Dow closed higher on the week, holding its position between the 10 and 40-week moving averages. The 14-week RSI remains in a bearish regime but has been showing signs of improvement over the past two weeks.
The relative trend continues to work through a potential bottoming process. A break of the trend from March 2021 could set the stage for outperformance.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has regained the 10-week moving average after successfully holding support. The neutral trend would become incrementally bullish with a break above the still-rising 40-week moving average.
The 14-week RSI is holding above 40, indicating that the bulls retain long-term momentum.
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