Key Points

  • The S&P 500 Falls Toward the 10-Week Moving Average
  • Small Caps Begin to Test Support
  • The NASDAQ 100 Remains an Underperformer
  • The Ten-Year Note Continues to Weaken
  • Commodities Drive Higher on the Week

U.S. Equities

The S&P 500 closed sharply lower in the week after failing to break above the 40-week moving average in the prior week. The index remains above the rising 10-week moving average, as well as price-based support. Thus far, the 14-week RSI has held above 40-level but now sits in the middle of the range, pointing to a neutral trend for prices. A confirmed move above the 40-week would signal that the bulls have taken control, while a break of support near 3,900 would put the bears in top position.

The S&P Small Cap 600 Index also close lower and is now trapped between the declining 40-week moving average and the rising 10-week moving average. There is price-base support near the 1,200 level. Momentum is neutral, with the 14-week RSI in the middle of the range. 

The relative trend remains neutral, below price-based resistance.

The NASDAQ 100 moved lower to test the rising 10-week moving average, below the declining 40-week moving average. Support at the 12,000 level is a key line for the bulls to defend in the near term. Momentum is neutral, with the 14-week RSI in the middle of the range.

The relative trend continues to fade from resistance, leaving another lower high on the chart. Until this level is overcome, odds favor continued underperformance.

U.S. Fixed Income

The 10-Year Note remains under pressure, testing the 2018 lows below the 10 and 40-week moving averages. The bull case is that this is still part of a base-building process. The bears are looking for a break of support. 

The yield remains testing resistance near 3.20%, and we are watching this level closely as a move above it points to further upside.

Global Equities

The Global Dow has pulled back to test the 10-week moving average below the declining 40-week moving average. Support neat 3,500 is a key level for the bulls to defend. Below the mark, the bears would take control of the trend.

The relative trend remains under pressure but saw a small improvement last week.


The Bloomberg Commodity Index moved higher last week, continuing to reassert a bullish trend above the 10-and 40-week moving averages. The moving averages should provide a level of near-term support, while stronger support remains near the 106 mark.

The 14-week RSI is moving higher after holding support at the 40-level.


Last week, we noted that after being rejected at key moving averages, equities faced the risk of a pullback to important support levels. That pullback has begun to play out, pushing trends into neutral positions. The 14-week RSIs confirm this view. Treasuries remain under pressure, testing an important support at the 2018 lows. Commodities continue to reassert their bullish trend above the 10 and 40-week moving averages.

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