Key Points
- The S&P 500 Brings the 40-Week Moving Averages into Range
- Small Caps Break Above a Key Level
- The NASDAQ 100 Fights for a Relative Breakout
- The Ten-Year Note is Under Pressure
- Commodities Improve Their Short-Term Picture
U.S. Equities
The S&P 500 closed the week near the top of the weekly range and within striking distance of the declining 40-week moving average. The rising 10-week moving average has moved above price-based support, providing a level that can be used for risk management should recent strength prove to be nothing more than a bear market rally. A close above the 40-week could open the door for a run to the November highs. Bulls want to see the 14-week RSI move above 60 and even become overbought to indicate that momentum has shifted in favor of the bulls.
The S&P Small Cap 600 Index rallied through the 40-week moving average, above price-based support, and the 10-week moving average. The index must now contend with the range that was in place for much of 2021 as the 14-week RSI attempts to break from a bearish regime. Above the 1,200 level, the benefit of the doubt is with the bulls.
The relative trend remains neutral, below price-based resistance.
The NASDAQ 100 closed higher for a fourth consecutive week to bring the 40-week moving average into range. The rising 10-week moving average enters the week above price-based support near 12,000. A break above the 40-week opens the door to further upside. A move below 12,000 puts the bears back in control.
The relative trend is testing resistance. Breaking higher from current levels could set the stage for further outperformance.
U.S. Fixed Income
The 10-Year Note came under pressure for a second week in a row but remains above the flat 10-week moving average. Support at the 2018 lows remained a key level for the bulls to hold during the current base-building process. Breaking above the 40-week moving average would be a sign that a new uptrend is taking hold.
The yield remains below resistance near 3.20%.
Global Equities
The Global Dow did not sit out last week’s rally as the index moved further beyond the 10-week moving average. There is still resistance to overcome at the 40-week moving average and the 2021/2022 consolidation zone before we can state that the trend has become bullish.
The relative trend remains weak, trading near two-year lows vs. the S&P 500.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index has regained the 10-week moving average after holding support at the rising 40-week moving average. Last week’s strength helps to improve the short-term picture while the bullish secular trend remains in place.
The 14-week RSI is holding in a bullish regime, after testing the lower bound of this regime near 40.
Take-Aways
Equity markets around the globe continued to rebound last week, taking them within striking distance of key levels. Breaking those levels to the upside would call for a view that is incrementally bullish, further supporting the stance that we have been adopting in these pages over the past two-plus weeks. Away from equities, treasuries have been under pressure for two weeks but remain in base-building mode. Commodities have improved their short-term picture within their bullish secular trend.
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