Key Points

  • The S&P 500 Closes at a Key Resistance Level
  • Small Caps Regain Early Losses
  • The NASDAQ 100 Faces Another a Key Test This Week
  • The Ten-Year Note Begins to Build a Base
  • Commodities Are Doing Battle with a Major Moving Average

This daily note IS brought to you by Research by Potomac. Access the full Advisor toolkit and get a deeper look at the markets.

U.S. Equities

The S&P 500 closed lower on the week but managed to finish near the top of the range, rebounding from an earlier selloff. The index remains below resistance at the 3,900 level and the declining 10-week moving average. Breaking these levels to the upside set the stage for a countertrend move toward the declining 40-week moving average. The 14-week RSI is holding in a bearish regime for now.

The S&P Small Cap 600 Index remains below resistance defined by the lower bound of the 2021 consolidation zone. The index is below the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages, and the 14-week RSI is holding in a bearish regime. Like the S&P, early weakness last week was reversed as the index closed near the top of the range.

The relative trend continues to stall below the key resistance points at the October/November highs. The group has gone from being “less bad’ than the S&P 500 to perform in line with the major U.S. average.

The NASDAQ 100 is testing broken support and the declining 10 week moving average, once again setting the stage for this week to be a key inflection point. Strength from here puts the declining 40-week moving average into play on the upside. The 14-week RSI has turned higher but remains in a bearish regime. Finally, we can add the NASDAQ to the list for closing at the top of the weekly range.

The relative trend remains bearish as the ratio trades below broken support; however, there are some early signs of stabilization that have caught our attention.

U.S. Fixed Income

The 10-Year Note is proving resilient as it begins to build a base near the 2018 lows. The Note closed above the 10-week moving average, which is in the early days of shifting from declining to flat. The 40-week moving average still reflects a bearish trend.

The yield is wrestling with resistance near 3.20%. It is notable that a stronger-than-expected CPI report last week did not cause a breakout in the yield.

Global Equities

The Global Dow is below the key 3,600 level and the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages. This bearish price structure is confirmed by momentum as the 14-week RSI trades near oversold levels.    

The relative trend remains below resistance and is moving lower.


The Bloomberg Commodity Index was lower for a fifth consecutive week last week as it does battle with the rising 40-week moving average. The index remains below the declining 10-week moving average but above price-based support. This is all a long way of saying that the short-term trend is bearish, but the long-term trend is still bullish. For those with a longer timeframe, the bulls keep the ball above 106.

The 14-week RSI is holding in a bullish regime, testing the 40-level.


While stocks finished lower last week, we note that the major U.S. averages all closed near the top of their respective ranges. This reversal sets the stage for possible countertrend rallies this week, which take the index through resistance. If the bulls are going to try to take the ball, this is their best chance. Commodities are still in a secular uptrend as they do battle with the 40-week moving average. Treasuries are beginning to build a base at support.

If you enjoy reading this Daily Note and would like to go deeper, Research by Potomac features a monthly chart book, sector deep dives, intermarket analysis, and more. Click here to start a Free 30-Day Trial.

Disclosure: This information is prepared for general information only and should not be considered as individual investment advice nor as a solicitation to buy or offer to sell any securities. This material does not constitute any representation as to the suitability or appropriateness of any investment advisory program or security. Please visit our FULL DISCLOSURE page.