Equities in the U.S. remain in the neutral position we highlighted two weeks ago in this note. There are key price-based support levels that must hold; otherwise, the bears will be in control of the trend. However, it is hard to make a compelling bullish case below declining 40-week moving averages. Treasuries remain under pressure in a bearish trend, and commodities have reached a key inflection point.
The S&P 500 remains in a neutral position, above support at 3,900 and the 10-week moving average but below the declining 40-week moving average. Thus far, the 14-week RSI has held above 40-level but now sits in the middle of the range, pointing to a neutral trend for prices. A confirmed move above the 40-week would signal that the bulls have taken control, while a break of support near 3,900 would put the bears in top position.
The S&P Small Cap 600 Index rallied last week but remained below price-based resistance as well as the 10 and 40-week moving averages. This keeps the bears in control of the trend and the June lows in play for now. The 14-week RSI is pointing to waning downside momentum as it has held the 40-level during recent weakness.
The relative trend remains neutral, below price-based resistance.
The NASDAQ 100 Index has rallied from price-based support but remains below the 10 and 40-week moving averages. Momentum is neutral, with the 14-week RSI above 40 and in the middle of the range. Below 12,000, the bears are in control. The bulls need to reclaim the 40-week moving average to make a more compelling case.
The relative trend continues to trade below resistance. Until this level is overcome, odds favor continued underperformance.
U.S. Fixed Income
The 10-Year Note remains under pressure, below the 2018 lows and the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages. The bears remain in control of the trend.
The yield has broken through resistance at the 3.20% level, opening the door to a move toward 4.00%.
The Global Dow has held price-based support below the 10 and 40-week moving averages, a similar dynamic to what we see in U.S. markets. Below 3,500, the bears take control. The bulls need to regain the 40-week moving average to have a fighting chance. The 14-week RSI is trying to shift to a neutral position.
The relative trend remains under pressure, moving toward the late 2021 lows.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index undercut the pinched 10 and 40-week moving averages before rallying to close in the top half of last week’s range. If the bulls are going to reassert control, this is the level from which an attack should begin. There is a zone of support in the 106 – 110 range. Below this zone, the bullish thesis needs to be reevaluated.
The 14-week RSI is holding in a bullish regime.
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