- High Beta/Low Volatility Is Trapped
- Discretionary/Staples Needs to Bounce Here
- The Growth/Value Rebound Stalls
- Copper/Gold Clears an Important Level
- High Yield vs. Treasuries Gets Rejected
Key Themes and Relationships
High Beta vs Low Volatility
The High Beta/Low Volatility ratio is trapped between price-based support and resistance as it trades between the 50 and 200-day moving averages. The 14-day RSI is in the middle of the range, and we note that it has not been oversold since December. This gives a small edge to an upside breakout, but the bull case is difficult below the 200-day.
Consumer Discretionary vs Consumer Staples (Equal Weight)
The Discretionary/Staples ratio has found support at the flat 50-day moving average, while the 200-day moving average falls toward price-based resistance. Until those levels are overcome to the upside, it is hard to make a bullish case. However, the improving 14-day RSI makes the bear case difficult as well.
Growth vs Value (Large Cap)
The Growth/Value ratio is trading between the rising 50-day moving average and the declining 200-day moving average above price-based support. The 14-day RSI is in the middle of the range, confirming the neutral trend.
Small Caps vs Large Caps
The Small Cap/Large Cap ratio remains between price-based support and resistance as it trades around the pinched moving averages. The 14-day RSI confirms a neutral trend as it trades in the middle of the range. We are still waiting for a winner to emerge.
Lumber vs Gold
The Lumber/Gold ratio has been pinned to price-based support by the declining 50-day moving average. The flat 200-day moving average gives us a sense of the longer-term trend. The 14-day RSI remains in a bearish regime.
Copper vs Gold
The bounce from support for the Copper/Gold ratio has cleared the 50-day moving average, opening the door to a move to the declining 200-day moving average (which is lined up with resistance now). The 14-day RSI is trying to break from a bearish regime but has been unable.
High Yield vs Treasuries
The High Yield to Treasuries ratio has become a ping pong ball between support and resistance and the moving averages. The 14-day RSI is in the middle of the range, providing no guidance.
Bulls to the left of me, bears to the right, here I am. The themes that we track are mostly stuck in the middle. Trapped between support and resistance, trapped between converging moving averages, or both. While the trends in the market over the past month have become incrementally bullish, making all-in bets seems premature until there is a clear direction break in risk appetite.
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