Key Points
- The S&P 500 Loses for a Sixth Consecutive Week
- Small Caps Lose Support
- The NASDAQ 100 Can’t Find Its Footing
- Ten-Year Note Tries to Stabilize
- Commodities Maintain Their Bullish Trend, But Begin to Wobble
U.S. Equities
The S&P 500 closed lower for a sixth consecutive week despite a valiant rally attempt on Friday. The index is below resistance at 4,200 and the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages. The 14-week RSI is moving lower with room to an oversold position as it trades below the 40 level. It is hard to make the case that the bears are not in control of the trend.
The losing streak for the S&P Small Cap 600 stands at four weeks. The index is below resistance at 1,220 and the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages. Momentum is bearish, with the 14-week RSI below 40 and moving toward oversold levels.
The relative trend has been holding steady for the past two weeks. In the current market, Small Caps have been less bad.
There is a six-week streak of losses in place for the NASDAQ 100, and the index has cleanly broken support at 13,000. Price is below the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages, putting the bears in control of the trend. Momentum is confirming the bearish price action with the 14-week RSI below 40.
The NASDAQ 100 continues to underperform the S&P 500.
U.S. Fixed Income
The 10-Year Treasury Note did begin to “heal” near the 2011 and 2018 lows last week, something we called out as possible in this note last week. However, the Note is still below the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages and will require time before the bullish case can be made.
The yield has begun to establish 3.20% as a resistance level.
Global Equities
The Global Dow has also broken key support below the declining 10 and 40-week moving averages. The index has been lower for six consecutive weeks. Momentum confirms the bearish price trend as the 14-week RSI trades below 40.
The relative trend remains below resistance in a choppy consolidation that has marked trading for more than a year.
Commodities
The Bloomberg Commodity Index remains in an uptrend, above the rising 10 and 40-week moving averages. However, we note that the index needed a late-week rally to hold the shorter moving average after its first trip below it in 2022. The 140 level remains a key test for the bulls.
The 14-week RSI is near overbought levels, confirming the bullish price action.
Take-Aways
Equities remain under pressure, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 notching six-week losing streaks. The key indexes have broken support below important moving averages, keeping the bears in control of the trends. Treasuries are trying to stabilize but calling a bottom appears pre-mature at this point. Commodities begin to wobble but remain the strongest asset trend.
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