From a factor perspective, there is no change to the trends which still favor Value to Growth and Small Caps to Large Caps.

Thus far, the market has delivered, and the door is now open to a run toward the 4,100-4,200 zone for the index.

The Ten-Year note rallied above the declining 50-day moving average for the first time since the summer of this year.

On a relative basis, the leaders that we have been highlighting for the past few weeks have maintained their positions.

The index has broken above that level, an incrementally bullish development that could lead to a test of 4,100 as the next key battle.

The strongest day for the S&P 500 since the COVID lows has pushed the index through the key 3,900 level that we have been highlighting.

We need to see more bullish breadth across the board to have confidence that rallies will have staying power.

Both the S&P 500 and the S&P 600 have experienced minor improvements over the past week, but it has not been enough to get the bulls cheering.

Technology, continues its trend of underperformance in breaking long-term relative support to the downside over the past week of trading.

Small Caps continue to exhibit relative strength in the equity space while the NASDAQ 100 remains an underperformer.

Value remains an outperformer relative to growth, while Small Caps have the edge over Large Caps.

The S&P 500 traded to the key 3,900 level that we have been highlighting before fading over the past few days.

The NASDAQ 100 continues to fall behind the bullish technical developments of its peers and has emerged as an underperformer once again.

There is still a lot of work to do for the trends to become bullish, so the focus remains on relative strength.

The countertrend rally to 3,900 that we have been highlighting has played out. The S&P 500 closed at that level and above its 10-week moving average.

Commodity-based ratios are holding up, but the breakdown in Semiconductors is a concern.

While there is still a lot of work to do before we can make the case that breadth is bullish, these improvements are playing out.

Commodities continue their consolidation at an important support zone as momentum within the space potentially builds energy for a directional move.

The short-term rally we have been calling for has been playing out, and most sectors have bounced on an absolute basis.

We remain open to the idea of a countertrend rally in risk assets that takes the S&P 500 toward 3,900.

The themes that we track to gauge risk appetite in the market remain supportive of our view that there is scope for a countertrend rally in the S&P 500 toward 3,900.

Breadth metrics improved this week, but there is still a lot of work to be done before we can make the claim that breadth is healthy.

Major equity indexes have managed to recapture key long-term levels to the upside over the past week of trading.

While the index has been choppy, it has regained the June lows. The key, however, is to have greater exposure to the groups that are leading.

Last week, we noted that the bulls might begin to fight back, and while equities closed lower on the week, the S&P 500 finished well off the lows.

We have been making a case for the past week and a half that there is scope for the S&P 500 to stage a rally toward the 3,900 level.

Last week, we noted that the breadth metrics across the U.S. equity market were not impressive and that odds favored a lower low for the S&P 500.

Equity investors looking for a bounce at the June lows have yet to have such hopes materialize.

For investors who must maintain exposure to the U.S. equity market, the strategy remains centered on finding what is less bad.

Treasuries remain under pressure while commodities have held support to keep their secular uptrend alive.

There has been a slight improvement in some of the themes, but not enough to claim that investors have shifted to a risk-on stance.

The S&P 500 has made a small rebound after undercutting the June lows, metrics improved to levels that are still not impressive for equity bulls.

Commodities are holding support but are likely to be traded in consolidation in the near term. The 10-Year Note remains in a strong downtrend.

Two weeks ago, we noted that many sectors were likely to pay a visit to their June lows. That view has played out.

Many bulls in the market were looking for the June lows to hold, creating a support level that could be used to mount a counterattack on the bears.

Despite a volatile week of trading in the equity and fixed income markets, there has been little change in the key themes and relationships we track.

As the S&P 500 tests the levels that were seen in June, we note that many of the breadth metrics that we track fell to the same levels that were reached at that time.

Defensive sectors have perked up to outperform on a relative basis as the market-wide selling pressure has increased over the past several trading sessions.

The pressure on the bulls continues to mount across asset classes. In the U.S. equity market, all eyes will be on the June lows.

The trends for the key themes and relationships that we track have become slightly more bearish over the past week.

All Advance/Decline Lines are below their respective 50-day moving averages, and new lows on the NYSE are beginning to reverse their downtrend from June.

The major indexes in the U.S. remain below their 50 and 200-day moving averages.

For investors who must have equity exposure, Energy and Utilities remain leadership.

The bears made their case a bit stronger last week as the major U.S. averages closed below important support levels

The neutral trends that we highlighted last week for the themes that we track remain in place this week.

There has been some improvement in the new highs/lows data on the NYSE, while long-term trend data was weaker across most U.S. markets.

After a four-day rally, the bears let us know they are still in the match. Trends in the equity market can be described as neutral with a bearish bias.

For many sectors, key support levels have held, and rebounds have recaptured the 50-day moving averages.

There are key price-based support levels that must hold; otherwise, the bears will be in control of the trend.

The themes that we track remain in a neutral position. Many are stuck between support and resistance and/or the 50 and 200-day moving averages.

The “thrusts” that appeared during the summer rally have not produced the types of follow-throughs that we want to see in the equity market.

At the same time, momentum has failed to hold in a bullish regime. The door is now open for the June lows to be retested.

Utilities and Energy remain the leadership, while Staples, Industrials, and Financials are sectors that qualify as being “less bad.”

The key themes that we track to measure risk appetite in the market are not given a clear message in either direction.

Short-term trend metrics are nearing washed-out levels but making a compelling case for aggressive bullishness in this environment is hard.

The major averages in the U.S. has reached key levels that the bulls must defend to keep the short-term uptrend from the June lows in place.

While equities have weakened over the past week of trading, most groups remain above important support levels.

Last week, we noted that after being rejected at key moving averages, equities faced the risk of a pullback to important support levels.

The themes that we track are mostly stuck in the middle. Trapped between support and resistance, trapped between converging moving averages, or both.

Breadth metrics have weakened across the major U.S. markets over the past week after becoming incrementally stronger since June.

While the trend had been improving since the June lows and the bulls were taking control, the bears are not going to go down without a fight.

The improvements that we have been highlighting over the past few weeks have begun to stall.

While equity trends had been becoming incrementally bullish heading into last week, they were not able to clear key resistance last week.

While a pause can and should be expected after a swift rebound, how the themes react from here will be telling.

Many of the short-term improvements that we have been highlighting have begun to show up in the longer-term metrics.

Trends in U.S. equities have become incrementally bullish, with the bulls now in top position and clear lines that can be used for risk management.

The Relative trend in Technology and Discretionary continues to improve while Energy and Health Care weaken.

Equity markets around the globe continued to rebound last week, taking them within striking distance of key levels.

The key themes and relationships that we track on a weekly basis all have the same look as many of the equity and fixed income ETFs that we highlight.

The market has trended to the upside, and 200-day is within range. Meanwhile, breadth metrics continue to improve across U.S. markets.

After fighting off their backs, the bulls have pushed trends in the equity markets into a neutral position.

One bullish datapoint is stalling of bullish relative trends on the part of the defensive sectors of the market.

U.S. equities remain in their counter-trend rallies, which have room to the declining 40-week moving averages.

Bulls look for breakouts from resistance in High Beta/Low Vol, Discretionary/Staples, some degree of stabilization in both Lumber/Gold and Copper/Gold, and an oversold print in the RSI of High Yield Credit Spreads.

The major equity indexes are testing long-term resistance zones as investors take a “wait and see” approach.

While the underperformance has been a welcome development for the equity bulls, the price action in the cyclicals remains mixed.

This week we have ween the themes and relationships to track risk appetite hold their ground after rebounding during the prior two weeks.

The breadth data has improved over the past week. Yesterday saw the S&P 500 close above the important 4,000 level.

While the bulls have done a nice job of fighting off their backs, it is still too soon to say that they have taken control of the match.

There have been near-term improvements at the sector level, putting the bulls in a position to take control.

Last week we noted that the door was open to a countertrend rally that could take the major averages through resistance.

This week has seen some risk appetite return to the market as many of the themes that we track have moved higher.

Breadth metrics have improved on the week, especially for the short-term data.

More time is needed to determine if this is simply another in a series of bear market rallies or something more sustainable.

Defensive leadership remains the name of the game as the bears remain in control of the market.

While stocks finished lower last week, we note that the major U.S. averages all closed near the top of their respective ranges.

The bearish trends in the Copper/Gold ratio and the High Yield/Treasuries ratio are the most glaring data points.

Across the major averages that we track, metrics were mostly lower on the week and continue to sit near levels that confirm the bearish trend in equity prices.

Equities in the U.S. retain their bearish trends, with all three major averages below declining 50 and 100-day moving averages.

Absolute trends remain weak across sectors, forcing investors to continue to find what is “less bad” in a bear market.

It is hard to make a strong bullish case on risk assets. Equities are trading below key resistance levels and moving averages.

Several risk proxies that we track have experienced noteworthy bounces in this week’s trading session.

Breadth metrics have improved slightly over the past two weeks, but we are hard pressed to make a strong bullish case just yet.

The bears remain in control of the trends across the U.S. equity landscape and volatility continues to trade at elevated levels.

The price action across the S&P 500 sectors over the past week can largely be described as “risk-off”.

Risk off trends largely continue in the intermarket relationships that we track across the board.

What’s most interesting in this environment is the development with Small Caps holding the January 2021 upside breakout zone.

Many pre-COVID highs across sectors are either being tested as support or recaptured to the upside.

Risk appetite across the ratios that we track continues to dwindle as global equity and fixed income volatility remains elevated.

Breadth metrics remain weak across most of the major U.S. markets. New lows remain elevated while a build of new highs is elusive.

The biggest change this week is that commodities, which had been bucking the bearish trend, have begun to weaken as well.

Nothing is immune in a bear market. Eventually, the sellers come for the last holdout and the groups that had been performing well.

It is not a surprise to see the key themes and relationships that we use to gauge risk appetite under pressure.

The bulls dropped the ball, and the bears remain in control of the market.

Bear market bounces across stocks and treasuries have largely played out and given way to lower lows, much to the chagrin of the bottom-calling crowd.

The bears remain in control. Investors who must maintain an allocation to equities continue to play the game of finding what is “less bad.”

Commodities remain the only port in the storm, continuing a trend that we have been highlighting on these pages for months.

The improvements that we have seen in risk appetite over the past two weeks are beginning to recede once again.

Breadth metrics mostly improved over the past week, building on the improvements that we have been calling out of late.

While the S&P 500 tests the underside of resistance, the S&P 600 has already broken through. The NASDAQ 100 remains a laggard.

Investing in the current market environment remains a game of finding and riding relative strength.

There are clearly defined resistance levels, prices, and/or moving averages that must be overcome before a bullish case can be made.

The themes that we track in this note have mostly improved for a second consecutive week, an encouraging sign for risk appetite in the market.

Breadth metrics have improved for a third consecutive week, something that even the most bearish of bears would be remiss to ignore.

The major averages are all at/near key resistance points below their moving averages. The real work begins now.

Many sectors have moved higher from important support levels, but it is hard to make the case that much has changed.

While there have been some improvements in the near term, it is likely premature to state that investors have shifted to a risk-on stance.

Investors will want to see a stronger response from stock prices to feel confident that breadth improvements will lead to a durable bottom.

Stocks in the U.S. are trying to stabilize, but this pause in their bearish trends is playing out below important resistance levels.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, “less bad” continues to be the focus for investors who must maintain an allocation to U.S. equities.

The bears remain in the control of the trend for the S&P 500, which closed lower for a seventh consecutive week last week.

Equities have staged a sharp four-day relief rally, a good starting point to arresting the decline that has gripped markets for much of 2022.

Except for Energy, there are few compelling absolute trends in the market. Some groups are trying to stage rebounds from logical support levels.

Equities remain under pressure, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 notching six-week losing streaks.

With the S&P 500 under pressure for a sixth consecutive week, is it not surprising to see the risk-off trends continue to play out.

The only good thing that we can say about the breadth picture is that we have nothing good to say about the breadth picture.

With stocks under pressure, sentiment has reached levels of excess fear.

The growth areas of the market remain under pressure on an absolute and relative basis.

Stocks in the U.S. and globally remain under pressure and in a defensive posture as rallies are being sold below declining moving averages.

The message from the themes that we track continues to be one of risk aversion on the part of investors.

There was some improvement in the breadth metrics, rebounding slightly from the depressed levels that were seen in the previous week.

Bearish sentiment has moderated a bit over the past week as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 continue to test important areas of support.

Over the past week, we have learned that in a bear market, even the defensive sectors eventually come under attack.

Key support levels are being tested or broken for equities around the world. Commodities remained the leading asset class and closed higher.

Risk ratios continue to send the same message of investors’ unwillingness to take risk within the markets.

Market volatility has taken its toll on market breadth over the past week, as readings have declined broadly.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 have traded to key support levels, while the S&P 600 has broken below.

Investors who must maintain an allocation to U.S. equities are now likely playing a relative game, finding pockets of the market which are less bad.

Equities remain offered while treasuries fail to provide much cover. Commodities retain their bullish trend but were not spared last week.

Themes and relationships that we track in this note have continued to send the message that there is a lack of risk appetite.

There were improvements in the breadth metrics for the NYSE, S&P 500, and S&P 600. Metrics have declined over the past week.

Equities are fighting hard just to maintain their neutral trends and avoid breaking important support levels.

The groups that are in clear bullish trends (Energy, Staples, and Utilities) are few and far between. Growth sectors continue to lag.

Commodities have begun to resume their uptrend, putting an important resistance level in their sights.

After snapping a three-week streak of improvements last week, the most recent breadth data is mixed to slightly lower.

Commodities remain the most bullish trend across asset classes and may be on the verge of a continuation.

The defensive pockets of the S&P 500 continue to garner the most attention, with many breaking to a new high on an absolute and/or a relative basis.

Stocks came under pressure last week, unable to maintain strength from the March lows. The rally is beginning to look more and more like a bear market bounce.

Many of the themes that we track continue to point to a market where investors are unwilling to take on excess risk.

While most of the metrics have weakened, the declines are most pronounced in the short-term data and in the Small Cap index.

Commodities remain in a bullish trend and are likely still under-owned. These dynamics play out while sentiment is in a neutral position.

The growth sectors of the S&P 500 continue to improve, especially Technology and Consumer Discretionary.

After a strong move over the past two-three weeks, the U.S. and global equities are showing signs of indecision.

After showing some improvement in the prior two weeks, the themes that we track to gauge risk appetite in the market have begun to stall.

As we enter the final trading day of the first quarter, breadth metrics continue to improve across major U.S. markets.

Bulls want to see the S&P 500 hold above 4,550 to have confidence that this is more than a rally within a bear market.

Technology and Discretionary are leading a possible resurgence in the “growth” themes under the surface of the S&P 500.

Small Caps were a disappointment and have given up some of the relative strength that they fought so hard to gain in the prior month.

The positioning of the themes and relationships that we track is decidedly neutral (except for Discretionary/Staples).

Breadth data improved for a second consecutive week, except for the Small Cap metrics. We are most impressed by the advances in the NASDAQ 100.

The countertrend rally that we highlighted for equities last week has taken the U.S. averages into neutral positions.

The growth sectors of the market have staged impressive rebounds, but trends remain mostly bearish until key moving averages are retaken.

Last week’s rally in equities served to improve their positioning from one where the bears were on the verge of taking control to one that is more neutral.

Most of the themes and relationships that we track to gauge risk appetite have staged rallies along with risk assets this week.

A persistent theme this year has been an inability to build on these improvements when they have taken place.

Equity indexes in the U.S. are in a position to embark on countertrend rallies, something that we began to explore last week.

For the second week in a row, “less bad is good enough” for investors who must maintain an allocation to equities and are playing the “relative” game.

Momentum is beginning to shift in favor of the bears, which would lend confirmation to any support breaks that play out in the weeks ahead.

The trends for the key themes that we track remain largely tilted toward less risk-taking on the part of investors.

Since the start of the year, improvements in breadth have been short-lived. This week is another case of the metrics moving lower after the previous week’s improvement.

Small Caps continue to outperform and have yet to break down on a relative basis. Commodities mark a big reversal day.

For investors who must maintain an allocation to equities, there are only two sectors that have strong absolute trends (Energy and Utilities).

The more interesting story is under the surface in the U.S., where Small Caps are exhibiting better relative strength.

The move higher in the Lumber/Gold Ratio and the Small Caps vs. Large Caps Ratio point to some increased risk appetite on the part of investors.

We have seen bouts of improvement at various points over the past few months, but they have proven to be short-lived.

The major averages in the U.S. are doing all that they can to hold important support levels. Sentiment has become more fearful.

Energy remains the best trend in the market. There are only four sectors that are trading above their respective 200-day moving averages.

While there has been no lack of geopolitical events with the potential to move markets, the major U.S. averages all managed to hold key support levels.

Growth vs. Value and Discretionary vs. Staples have both flashed a bullish RSI divergence at recent price lows.

Breadth metrics have weakened across the board as equities have come under pressure this week.

S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have traded down to important support levels while their 14-day RSIs have made a small bullish divergence.

Defensive groups held up on a relative basis last week, but this simply meant less bad as equities were under pressure broadly.

Generally speaking, the message of the market remains murky based on the themes that we cover here.

Broadly speaking, the breadth picture remains less than impressive across the major U.S. markets.

For all the news surrounding the Fed and Russia, there was no change to the trends for major assets that we cover.

Defensive groups have failed to take advantage of increased volatility, arguably a datapoint that favors the bulls.

Stocks came under pressure, keeping the major averages in neutral positions between clearly defined support and resistance levels.

Commodity themes are taking the Fed at face value, moving to the upside along with rates.

Breadth metrics have improved over the past two weeks, with the greatest improvement being seen in the S&P 500 data.

It would be encouraging to see resistance broken to the upside along with improvements in momentum to increase confidence.

With few exceptions, the word that best describes the absolute trends at the sector level is “sloppy.”

Stocks in the U.S. remain in repair mode, trying to fix the damage that has been inflicted on them since the start of the year.

The very subtle signs of life that we noted last week remain in place but have done little to gain much traction.

The broader and/or smaller the index, the more damage that has been done under the surface of the index.

Stocks in the U.S. have moved higher over the past three days, we note that there is much work to do for the bulls to reclaim control.

When selling pressure grips in the market, it is often helpful to identify the sectors that held up the best on a relative basis.

Equities in the U.S. staged a late rebound on Friday, which held the S&P 500 while avoiding a fourth consecutive week of losses.

Lumber/Gold ratio has finally begun to succumb to the pressures that have been evident across the other themes that we track.

Some metrics are at/near “washed out” levels that have the potential to lead to a near-term bounce.

If the bulls are going to mount a rally attempt, there are clear lines in the sand from which a counterattack can begin.

Uptrends are hard to find (only Energy and Staples), neutral trends on an absolute basis led to outperformance on a relative basis.

Equities in the U.S. have begun to break key support levels shifting the burden of proof to the bulls.

The signs point to a lack of risk appetite on the part of investors this week. High Beta continues to struggle vs. Low Volatility.

While we have highlighted the poor breadth dynamics, we have been encouraged by a decline in new lows on the NYSE.

We note that the bulls are losing position and will have to fight hard to regain it. Commodities remain strong.

On an absolute basis, there are a lot of key support levels being tested as the new week begins. Trends are becoming sloppy.

The bearish development in the Growth vs. Value theme became clearer.

While I wish there was something compelling to say about the market breadth this week, there just isn’t.

Battle lines are being drawn across the asset classes that we highlight in this Note, with key levels being tested and/or breached.

The growth sectors of the S&P 500 all fended off a strong bearish attack yesterday to close near the highs of the range.

U.S. equities remain in bullish trends, but the pressure is mounting. Perhaps there will be a shift outside the U.S.?

The biggest change in the first week of the new year is the breakdown in the Growth vs Value theme.

Breadth declined after weakness across the board yesterday. However, the metrics held up better than we would have expected.

The biggest developments in the opening days of 2022 are the improvements in the Small Caps and Commodities.

The defensive sectors start the year by pulling back from record highs but remain in bullish trends above key support levels.

The new year begins with the old trends in place. The S&P 500 continues to reward the “broad exposure of buy & hold crowd.”

Investors move into the final day of the year in a defensive posture despite the S&P 500 trading near record levels.

The “bad breadth” thesis continues to erode for the bears as metrics improve across the board.

Within the U.S. equity markets, the bulls retain the benefit of the doubt, but the best bet appears to be centered on the S&P 500.

Technology and Defensive sectors lead the charge on the heels of the clean bullish setups that we highlighted.

Last week, risk assets largely improved across the board, though we note several market areas are currently testing resistance levels.

Breadth metrics saw a small improvement across markets this week, with the best results coming from short-term metrics.

Asset markets are searching for direction, with many trading in consolidations, unable to find a higher gear.

The sectors of the S&P 500 that should do well in an inflation regime appear to have peaked for now.

Short-term trading remains volatile, with a tilt toward “risk-off” across the U.S. equity landscape, timeframes matter.

The case can be made that investors have shifted to more of a risk-off stance despite the S&P 500 trading near record levels.

The NYSE’s Advance/Decline Line is fighting hard to hold support as the index is knocking on the door of new highs.

Equity Index bulls in the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 retain the benefit of the doubt for now, but the lines in the sand are clear.

The S&P 500 is trading near record levels, but the “defensive” sectors have been exhibiting the most strength of late.

Time frames matter. Stocks and commodities did all they could last week to maintain their prevailing long-term trends.

The commodity market is conflicted with the Lumber/Gold ratio powering higher while Copper/Gold spins its wheels.

The silver lining that we highlighted in last week’s note played out as washed-out short-term breadth metrics led to a stock rally.

The NASDAQ 100 continues to be the best of the bunch, and we find the action in the S&P 500 impressive.

It is interesting to note that during a positive session for the S&P 500 yesterday, three defensive groups traded to 21-day relative highs.

Short and intermediate-term trends have come under pressure while longer-term trends remain mostly bullish.

We would like to see Growth over Value and Large over Small confirmed with a breakdown in the Copper/Gold Ratio.

There is no way to sugarcoat how bad breadth has become across U.S. markets. Many metrics are at or near lowest levels of the year.

It would not be a surprise to see equities react to overly bearish sentiment and a lower high in the VIX by staging a near-term rally.

A flattening yield curve is likely to be supportive of further outperformance on the part of Technology and Discretionary.

Markets came under pressure last week on the heels of the build in new lows that we highlighted.

The key themes and relationships that we track are beginning to point to decreasing risk appetite on the part of investors.

Our “pause that refreshes” continues to play out for equities as the trend and momentum remains bullish across markets.

There was a lot of talk about Growth lagging Value yesterday but putting it into perspective shows us that Growth remains the leader.

While we have not changed our stance, we are mindful of the elephant in the room in the form of increasing new lows.

The ratio that we are watching most closely is Copper/Gold. It has been consolidating for most of the year

As the S&P 500 continues to work through its short-term consolidation, breadth metrics have weakened across markets.

Trend for the S&P 500 remains bullish, above the rising 50 and 100-day moving averages. Sentiment is still more greedy than fearful.

Most sectors continue to trade at/near record highs. That is the sign of a fairly healthy market.

Despite some stalling activity across equity markets last week, we remain in the camp of higher prices into the end of the year.

The continued weakness in the Copper/Gold and Lumber/Gold ratios are the biggest standouts as Gold wakes up.

As stocks pause after a strong rally, breadth metrics remain supportive of our view that equity prices will melt up.

It would not be surprising to see a near-term pause that allows the indexes to refresh before moving higher into the end of the year.

Eight of eleven sectors are trading at/near record highs. This lends a bullish confirmation to the uptrends.

We find it hard to be bearish on equities when the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 600 are trading at record levels.

This week’s key developments are the breakouts in the Growth vs. Value ratio and Semiconductors vs. the S&P 500.

Advance/Decline Lines are either at new highs or breaking short-term resistance.

The breakout in Small Caps to join the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 at record levels adds fuel to the bullish trend for equities.

The S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, and Russell 2000, are trading at all-time highs.

A flattening yield curve and dollar strength should help to keep bullish sentiment in check in the near term.

There are key levels being tested for some of these important themes that we track. How they respond to these levels…

Until there are signs that breadth metrics are breaking, we stick with the view we had for the past few weeks, breadth is improving.

New highs for the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 line up well with our view that U.S. stocks are likely to see a melt up into year’s end.

The odds are beginning to point to a melt-up for the equity market into the end of the year.

New high for the S&P 500 is bullish in the U.S.; we expect to see the Small Caps and the NASDAQ Composite follow suite.

Key themes point to a “risk-on” environment that leans toward larger stocks and is in the direction of value.

For most of the year, the bear case has hinged on declining breadth. It is safe to say that that thesis has been wrong.

Bears had a golden opportunity to push stocks lower, but the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 have staged rebounds.

Technology and Discretionary have shown signs of improvement over the past week as equity market strength broadens.

Commodities remain a clear leader across asset classes, with Energy and Industrial Metals driving performance.

The S&P 500’s powerful move to the upside goes a long way in repairing the minor damage that has been done to the index.

For a second consecutive week, breadth metrics have improved for the most part. Small Caps show the broadest improvement.

After a rally attempt last week, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have pulled back below their 100-day moving averages.

Energy and Financials remain the best of the bunch, and there has been some relative improvement for…

Choppy trading in the equity market is likely to persist with many of the major averages stuck between moving averages.

Last week, we noted that these themes were a sloppy mess, and we are hard-pressed to say that much has changed this week.

Breadth continues to become “less bad,” especially for the NYSE’s metrics which are beginning to flash bullish divergences.

Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 have been logging lower highs and lower lows over the past month.

Cyclical parts of the market have shown relative improvement, Energy and Financials are moving into leadership positions.

As rates continue rising, Small Caps are likely to remain leadership along with Commodities.

The failed breakout in Discretionary vs. Staples is another example of the “risk-on” theme not getting much traction.

Recent weakness in the market has not done much to improve. Small Cap breadth has become “less bad”.

We must wonder if “sell the rip” is a better plan than “buy the dip,” …at least in the near term.

Rising rates are beginning to impact the equity market, with strength surfacing in the Financial sector.

The breakdown in the 10-Year Note (move higher in rates) is arguably the key development over the past week.

Lumber is leading Gold and Discretionary is breaking out relative to Staples, two key data points in the “risk-on” thesis.

If your job is to “write” about technical analysis, you typically find data points that fit your narrative.

Fears of “contagion” are running through the media but thus far are not materializing in the markets.

Defensive groups have shown some signs of relative stabilization, as we would expect in times of stress.

Near-term pressure in the equity market persists, sending the major averages to important levels of interest within their prevailing trends.

Signs of life in risk appetite as High Beta begins to lead Low Volatility, and Lumber makes a strong move higher relative to Gold.

Small Caps remains the weakest and the metrics have ticked lower over the past week.

The S&P 500 has once again reached the 50-day moving average, which has been a key guidepost for the “buy the dip” crowd.

The Health Care sector is on the verge of trading to another new high as the uptrend is firmly in place on an absolute basis.

Odds favor the rising 10-week (50-day) moving average continuing to act as support to pullbacks in what remains a bullish trend.

From a risk perspective, the fact that these trends did not breakdown in the face of a four-day decline for the S&P 500 is encouraging.

Short and intermediate-term trend measures remain in early uptrends, while long-term trend metrics continue to decline.

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are in steady bullish trends while Small Caps and Commodities are stuck in their consolidations.

The Health Care sector is on the verge of trading to another new high as the uptrend is firmly in place on an absolute basis.

Technology, Discretionary vs. Staples, Lumber/Gold, Small Caps, Growth Over Value are top of mind as autumn approaches.

We are now seeing signs of improving breadth, a continuation of which would remove this part of the bear thesis.

We are still waiting for a resolution in the 10-Year Note which is likely to have important implications for leadership in the equity market.

Technology and Communication Services remain the best-looking groups as leaders tend to continue leading.

Risk-on is the only way to describe trading last week with strong bullish moves in the Small Caps and Commodities.

There are some divergences that hint for trend changes but trends that were in place two weeks ago, remain in place today.

We are still hard-pressed to call breadth metrics healthy despite the S&P 500 trading at record levels.

Groups that hold the largest Growth stocks continue to show signs of outperformance.

Groups that hold the largest Growth stocks continue to show signs of outperformance.

The rising 10-week moving average remains a key guide to the uptrend for the S&P 500 after holding, once again, last week.

There are early signs that the Transports are turning the corner, with the S&P 500 Road & Rail Index…

The improvement in small caps is perhaps the most impressive of the bunch.

Leadership shifts appear to be most sensitive to moves in the 10-Year Note

The potential resurgence of strength in Financials and the potential for a breakout in Utilities.

Equities exhibited some stalling behavior last week, but no damage was done to the prevailing, long-term uptrends.

The market is extremely calm on the surface but there is a lot of churning underneath.

Small Cap breadth remains the weakest. The Advance/Decline Line is heading lower, below the declining 50-day moving average.

Investors are not showing signs of excessive greed despite the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 trading near…

Cyclical sectors are testing resistance and have clearly defined levels below which we can say that their trends have turned bearish.

Equities exhibited some stalling behavior last week, but no damage was done to the prevailing, long-term uptrends.

While the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 trade near record highs, there remains a lot of choppiness under the surface.

Subtle signs of improvement in a few of the short-term breadth metrics, the level of participation in the market’s uptrend is lacking.

Despite concerns about the Delta variant, the S&P 500 Hotels, Restaurants, and Leisure Index made a new closing high.

Two of the key leading groups will be in sharp focus this week as key members of each report earnings.

The dips continue to be bought in the equity market, but outperformance continues to concentrate in the larger stocks

Under the surface, there remains a lot of uncertainty as it relates to thematic leadership. Credit may be the best “tell” in the near-term.

Breadth metrics remain under pressure across markets, with Small Caps sustaining the most damage into Monday’s lows.

Equities are bouncing from support levels after a brief pullback, as the 50-day moving average continues to define the trend.

As the prospects for a “risk-off” market continue, odds favor Pharma outperforming.

Treasuries and the Dollarhave an underlying bid to them while Small Cap stocks remain under pressure.

While the S&P 500 trades near-record levels, held aloft by the biggest of the Mega Cap stocks.

Breadth metrics across markets have weakened further over the course of the past week.

Record highs for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 indexes point to keeping the bull market for equites intact.

Growth themes continue to benefit from rotation while the cyclical groups are under pressure.

U.S. equities remain the best game but leadership within the U.S. market appears to be tilting back to the NASDAQ.

Commodity themes point to slowing global growth which is further supporting the outperformance of Growth stocks.

While we are seeing some small divergences across different data points, the trend needs more time to play out.

The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ have traded to record levels, but it is hard to make the case that sentiment is a concern.

Groups such as Technology and Communication Services are taking the lead from the cyclical sectors.

The Growth/Value ratio for the S&P 500 remains above the 200-day moving average after crossing it last week.

The Advance/Decline Line is near record levels but is not yet confirming the record levels of the index.

The overall trend in the equity market remains to the upside with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ trading at record level.

Rotation is the near-term focus for investors as Technology and Communication Services have exhibited strength of late.

Equity trends in the U.S. remain to the upside with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ logging record weekly closes.

Is Growth regaining leadership? The improvement in Growth over Value, while Lumber and Copper remain under pressure vs. Gold.

Despite the S&P 500 trading near record levels, there are signs that breadth is weakening under the surface.

As is always the case, we defer to price, where the trends remain to the upside.

The cyclical areas of the S&P 500 are in the process of testing important absolute and/or relative support levels. Will they hold?

The NASDAQ is a bright spot with reflation assets under pressure. Is the pressure likely to persist, or is this a pause?

While Treasury yields have moved lower over the past few weeks, the credit market is not sending a warning signal just yet.

Despite the S&P 500 trading near record levels, there are signs that breadth is weakening under the surface.

Comments from Fed Chair Powell today and, more importantly, market reactions to those comments will be important.

Materials, Financials, and Industrials are all testing their 50-day moving averages from above.

Equity markets in the U.S. and globally are trading at/near record levels, while yields break down at the long end of the curve.

Commodity Themes continue to weaken to the possibility that investors are preparing for a slower growth environment.

All eyes on inflation today, with the release of the CPI report. Ahead of the report, investor expectations…

The S&P 600 traded to a new high this week, Sentiment is not greedy. Will the S&P 500 break to new highs as well?

REITs Complete the Bearish to Bullish Trend Reversal while Technology Closes at a One-Month Relative High.

Equity trends remain to the upside in the U.S., and the Global Dow closed last week at a new high.

Value over Growth remains a key trend while two key breakouts emerge for Small Cap Energy.

Energy Equipment & Services are an Emerging Leader. Breadth Metrics Improve Across the NYSE, S&P 500, and S&P 600.

S&P 500 and S&P 600 Push Toward Record Highs while Crude Oil has broken above key resistance.